000
AXNT20 KNHC 160532
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE CENTRAL 
COAST OF LIBERIA AT 6N10W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 
2N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR ILHA DE MARAJO AT EQ50W. MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W AND 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF NEAR 28N94W. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO VERACRUZ NEAR 
19N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER 
TO THE NE GULF NEAR 29N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN BASIN NORTH OF 24N. SATELLITE 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ALONG WITH IT. A TIGHT SURFACE 
GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS 
OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN BASIN...AND 
EXPECTED TO LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS IN THIS REGION. THIS LOW WILL 
MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MORE RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER 
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY WEAK TO 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SEA BASIN AS 
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHIP AND BUOY 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 170 NM OFF THE COAST 
OF NORTH COLOMBIA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC...SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF 50W. 
THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER IS SEEN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W. A 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N30W AND EXTENDS 
SOUTHWEST ALONG 22N40W 18N50W ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS 
A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 17N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT. WEAK CONVECTION 
IS FOUND WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT TO FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
INLAND NEAR MOROCCO. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD 
WITH WEAK CONVECTION WITHING IT. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 77W OVER 
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THIS 
REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA