000
AXNT20 KNHC 152347
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N45W EQ50W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 27N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE 
LOW CENTER TO THE NE GULF NEAR 29N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN 
86W-95W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS RAIN OVER INLAND E TEXAS E OF 
100W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 
28N98W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 90W. THE BACK SIDE OF 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. A 90-110 KT 
UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN TO 
1004 MB AND MOVE NE TO S ALABAMA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 
ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE N GULF 
IN 12 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING MORE 
RAIN N OF 18N AND E OF 70W. STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MOST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA 
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 74W-79W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N64W DOMINATING 
THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DRIFT 
SLIGHTLY N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE RAIN OVER 
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N69W. A COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N28W TO 19N50W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO PUERTO RICO. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND 
OVER MOROCCO NEAR 35N4W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW 
FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 23N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. AN UPPER  
LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 24N15W. 
EXPECT...THE SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E TO 32N23W IN 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA