000 AXNT20 KNHC 151759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W 3N30W 2N42W... CROSSING THE ITCZ ALONG 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WATERS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 23W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 43W TO THE SOUTH OF 8N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO GATHER STRENGTH. THIS TROUGH IS STARTING TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE AND CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT INTO TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN HAS BEEN SPREADING INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...AND IN MEXICO FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN THE GULF COAST AND 105W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPANS THE AREA FROM 22N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 85W AND 108W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 26N107W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 17N108W FOLLOWING LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEEP SOUTH TEXAS 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 22N100W AND 19N104W. THE SOUTH TEXAS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BRING GALE-FORCE WINDS WITH IT AS IT REACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN IT IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER DURING ITS MOVEMENT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ROUGHLY CLOSE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN...AND POSSIBLY MORE IN SOME AREAS...HAVE FALLEN IN PUERTO RICO DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS AS A STATIONARY FRONT SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE ISLAND. THE RAIN THAT HAS BEEN FALLING TODAY HAS BEEN COMPARATIVELY LIGHTER IN INTENSITY AND LESS IN AMOUNT THAN THE AMOUNTS OF THE 24 HOURS OF YESTERDAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 20N60W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO TO 17N70W. THIS FRONT IS WHAT REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MAINLAND U.S.A. DURING THE LAST WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF FLORIDA AS AN EXAMPLE. BROAD CLIMATOLOGICAL SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. A TROUGH IS ALONG 80W FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N TO 15N. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE COVERING THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W AT 15/1200 UTC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 70W FROM 10N IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO 15N. THE CLOUDS OF THAT ORIGINAL AREA HAVE BEEN SPREADING OUT MORE AND MORE WITH TIME DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...POSSIBLY MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW THIS TROUGH IN THE FUTURE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...NOW PASSING THROUGH 31N32W TO 27N40W TO 24N49W...BECOMING STATIONARY AND CONTINUING TO 20N60W...AND THEN TO PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 23N51W TO 19N53W. THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE MORE SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N68W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N14W TO 28N19W TO 22N30W AND 17N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N37W 7N49W 2N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ MT