000 AXNT20 KNHC 141759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE ITCZ ALONG 48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...3N14W 4N27W 5N46W 5N52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH MEXICO ALONG ITS PACIFIC OCEAN COAST...FROM A SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N105W TO 20N101W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EVENTUALLY BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS ALMOST ALL OF THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT FROM SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTAL WATERS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AT LEAST FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN PUERTO RICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AS A STATIONARY FRONT SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE ISLAND. MORE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN AND AROUND PUERTO RICO STILL. THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 20N63W TO A POINT THAT IS JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST. THIS FRONT IS WHAT REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MAINLAND U.S.A. DURING THE LAST WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF FLORIDA. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO 16N70W 14N79W BEYOND THE BORDER OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 8N83W. BROAD CLIMATOLOGICAL SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALONG A TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 10N78W TO 14N76W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE WATERS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W ARE ASSOCIATED A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 10N IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 15N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 80W. A STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEEN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...NOW PASSING THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N50W TO 21N60W TO PUERTO RICO. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT CLOSELY...NOW WITHIN 150 NM TO 200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF IT...FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE STATIONARY FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT IS BEING DRIVEN BY ONE OF THE MANY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT IS IN THE WESTERN-TO-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AT THIS TIME. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N18W TO 25N34W 21N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 14N43W 7N45W 1N47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ MT