000 AXNT20 KNHC 141142 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 2N40W AND TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 25W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLC COAST NEAR 32N79W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LIGHT NE TO E WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 14/0320 UTC. W OF 92W...E TO SE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE OCCURRING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF WATERS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG 103W...SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 90W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS. SE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A SHEAR LINE THAT IS ANALYZED ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SW PUERTO RICO. IT EXTENDS SW ALONG 16N71W 14N78W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. CONVERGENT NORTHERLY WINDS FROM ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE SHEAR LINE FROM 15N72W TO OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF 12N TO THE SHEAR LINE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N71W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF QUICK PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... GENERALLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 55W BEHIND A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 32N45W TO 27N59W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N51W TO NEAR 26N60W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N47W TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N79W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N53W TO 23N60W THEN CROSSING PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N21W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ HUFFMAN