000 AXNT20 KNHC 140551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N09W 3N30W 2N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 31W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LIGHT NE TO E WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF. W OF 92W...E TO SE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE OCCURRING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF WATERS. MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN. AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG 98W SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD...IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 92W. AS THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST ALONG 104W MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF EARLY FRIDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE NE MEXICO COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A SHEAR LINE THAT IS ANALYZED ENTERING THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 15N78W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. CONVERGENT NORTHERLY WINDS FROM ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITHIN 250 NM NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. FARTHER EAST...CONVERGENT EASTERLY TRADES ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOCUSED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM PUERTO RICO SW ALONG 15N72W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N71W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF QUICK PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... GENERALLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 60W BEHIND A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 32N48W TO 26N70W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N53W TO NEAR 28N58W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N46W TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N35W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N50W TO 20N68W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N22W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 19N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ HUFFMAN