000
AXNT20 KNHC 131139
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST WED JAN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W 2N50W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A 
1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N91W. THIS 
SURFACE FEATURE IS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS UP 
TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE 
LIGHT NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. 
ALOFT...MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES AND CONTINUES TO 
ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND 
THE GULF W OF 88W. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PRECEDES THE NEXT 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL 
MEXICO THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE 
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE 
ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVING WAY TO 
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD 
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST 
TO EMERGE OFF THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A SHEAR LINE 
THAT IS ANALYZED ENTERING THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 15N78W TO THE COAST 
OF WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. CONVERGENT NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY 
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE. OTHER POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FARTHER EAST... 
CONVERGENT EASTERLY TRADES ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
FOCUSED S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-71W. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 
13N66W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W 
WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS 
PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT HOWEVER FOR A FEW 
AREA OF QUICK PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
EASTERLY TRADES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLC AND 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA TO NEAR 31N72W. MOST ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMAINING 
N OF 30N AND WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT 
EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E-NE TO A 1021 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 27N55W. SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE A STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W INTO THE CENTRAL 
ATLC ALONG 22N63W 23N55W TO 26N49W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER 
TO THE NE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W 
AND EXTENDS SW TO THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 26N49W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NW EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS 
FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AXIS IS EXITING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NE ACROSS THE 
EASTERN ATLC N OF 30N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB 
HIGH CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N23W. GENERALLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH 
CENTER TO 23N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN