000 AXNT20 KNHC 111136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N30W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 7W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 24W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED ON A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FAR SE GULF COAST NEAR 30N94W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WHILE LIGHT NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW GULF. ALOFT...CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS CONFLUENCE IS FURTHER AIDING AN ALREADY SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF...NE TO E SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE W ATLC CROSSING CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 18N72W 15N78W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE W ATLC AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN... CUBA...JAMAICA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SE OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NE TO E TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUE AS NOTED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 72W WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWER ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLC AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N64W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE TO 29N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT TRAILS S-SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N66W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR IS LOCATED BEYOND THAT MARKED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N67W TO 27N75W. NORTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE LOCATED NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W AND EXTENDS TO 29N58W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY REMAINING N OF 29N BETWEEN 48W-59W WITH THE COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N19W AND IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 25N40W TO NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 22N62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ HUFFMAN