000 AXNT20 KNHC 101740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA AT 4.5N8W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG EQ 1N30W 2N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 250 NM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF COTE D' IVOIRE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W. ALSO...WEAK CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO EXPAND AS STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN BASIN...BRINGING A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE REGION. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC ACROSS THE BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE NORTHERN BASIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THIS REGION THROUGH THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN JAMAICA. THEN...IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 16N78W 14N80W 12N81W TO THE SOUTHWEST BASIN NEAR CENTRAL COSTA RICA. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT ARE CREATING NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE MONA PASSAGE BY MONDAY OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THIS REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 27N65W 23N70W ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING OUT OF EASTERN UNITED STATES. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N28W...BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTHERN AFRICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT EXPANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION WITHIN AND AHEAD OF IT. COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA