000
AXNT20 KNHC 101136
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 2N25W 1N31W 2N47W 1N52W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 1N-6N E OF 19W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 
STRONG 1039 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. DENSE CLOUD 
COVER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA AND EXTREME S FLORIDA JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 
83W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH 
CLEARING SKIES WITHIN 60/90 NM ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TAMPA 
FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER 
THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY DIMINISHING LATER 
TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FROM THE UPPER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE GULF. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW GULF MON THROUGH WED. RETURN SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE W GULF THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI. COLD 
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS COVER THE AREA...THUS EXPECT 
CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING EXCEPT OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA AND 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER TODAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA 
NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA OVER THE W TIP OF JAMAICA TO INLAND OVER 
NE NICARAGUA TO NEAR 12N85W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO 
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER NW VENEZUELA 
PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS 
ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME REMNANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE BEING INTRODUCED FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE 
FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DENSE LOWER LEVEL 
CLOUD COVER WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA W OF A 
LINE FROM THE TIP OF E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS E JAMAICA 
ALONG 12N82W TO W PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE SE TODAY WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS 
BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO N OF 
CENTRAL PANAMA BY MON EVENING WHERE IT WILL THEN STALL AND 
DISSIPATE BY TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
WED DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN DIMINISH THU WITH 
EASTERLY TRADES INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS 
SW ALONG 27N69W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
ACROSS E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT 
IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE 
N/CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SW TO OVER THE W ATLC 
N OF 25N W OF 70W. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 225/250 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO 
BEYOND 32N63W AND COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF LINE FROM S FLORIDA NEAR FORT 
LAUDERDALE TO BEYOND 32N70W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLEAR SKIES 
WITHIN 60/90 NM ALONG THE US E COAST. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS 
THE E ATLC NEAR 32N12W EXTENDING S OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 
27N16W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N31W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE