000
AXNT20 KNHC 091752
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SAT JAN 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W 4N34W 2N45W...INTO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST
FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 9W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 
2N TO 4N BETWEEN 14W AND 19W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND
44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO ALL OF FLORIDA THAT IS 
TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THAT PART OF THE U.S.A. THAT IS TO THE 
EAST OF 100W. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT LEAST REACHES THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED INTO THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA 
COMPLETELY AT THIS TIME. ONLY A SMALL PART PASSES THROUGH THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BUILT INTO THE AREA FROM A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 27N104W TO 20N97W TO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 94W.
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CARIBBEAN VOLCANIC ASHFALL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED WITHIN 10 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT 
AT 16.4N 62.1W TO 17.0N 65.5W. REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM ASH 
CLOUD MAY IMPACT MARINE OPERATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT 
FOR THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS. THE COLD FRONT
THAT JUST EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO PASSES THROUGH THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA...TO WESTERN CUBA...AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 22N81W AT THE COAST OF CUBA THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N83W 18N84W 15N85W IN
EASTERN HONDURAS. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N87W IN HONDURAS...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
BEYOND 22N78W IN CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW...FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITHIN 300 NM TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE FROM 28N80W AT THE FLORIDA COAST BEYOND 32N72W. THE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N 
BETWEEN 40W AND 80W. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT REMAINS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 30N60W...ACROSS ELEUTHERA...
NASSAU...AND NORTHERN ANDROS ISLAND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 
28N30W TO 27N38W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N38W TO
26N45W 24N50W 24N56W TO 20N65W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT