000 AXNT20 KNHC 091143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 3N21W 4N34W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED S FLORIDA EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N83W AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE GULF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US TO NEAR THE N GULF COAST BUT IS BEING OVERRIDDEN BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE GULF WATERS WITH SW UPPER FLOW. THIS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE GULF TO OVER THE SE US INCLUDING FLORIDA... GEORGIA...S ALABAMA...AND THE CAROLINAS GIVING THOSE STATES AND MOST OF THE GULF DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE NW GULF IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST W OF VERMILION BAY WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE DENSE CLOUD COVER. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT BEHIND THE FRONT IS ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER S TEXAS AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THE STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF BRINGING THE COLD AIR FURTHER SOUTH. THESE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH TODAY THEN DIMINISH BY LATE SUN THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA TO ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N87W TO INLAND OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N88W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER N COLOMBIA PROVIDING A RELATIVELY SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING INTRODUCED FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NEAR 21N82W TO OVER N HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. A SHALLOW STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE BASIN JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 18N69W. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN BY SUN EVENING WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE TO A POSITION FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN BY MON EVENING. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR W ATLC NEAR 32N69W AND EXTENDS INTO THE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO OVER W CUBA 23N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N43W. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO 24N45W THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT W ALONG 23N57W THEN SW JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 31W-45W. A DISSIPATING 1020 MB HIGH IS E OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALLACE