000 AXNT20 KNHC 082354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND 120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 10W AND 13W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...LEAVING NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THE SOUTHERN REGION OF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE EAST TROPICAL PACIFIC AND MOVING ACROSS THE MEXICO BASIN...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT PRECIPITABLE WATER TO THIS SYSTEM. DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL BASIN...AND ALSO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A STRONGER LINE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT TWO TO FOUR HOURS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 25 KT TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO LAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION FROM HAPPENING SOUTH OF 15N. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE WEATHER NORTH OF 15N IS DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN...A SHEAR LINE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BASIN...AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST BASIN. THE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA ALONG 22N81W 20N82W 18N83W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W. WEAK CONVERGENCE IS SEEN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTH OF HAITI NEAR 17N72W CONTINUING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 17N75W 17N77W 16N80W 14N81W TO WEST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N82W. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS FOUND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE. THE STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 18N65W 17N66W TO SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD FROM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTHEAST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION AND NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND IT. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N76W AND EXTENDS TO NEAR VERO BEACH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N60W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N37W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N44W 23N50W 22N54W...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT AND CONTINUING INTO THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE CONVECTION INDICATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N. WEAK SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A WEAKENING SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N30W...BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH COLD FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION WITHIN AND AHEAD OF IT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA