000
AXNT20 KNHC 081747
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST FRI JAN 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 45W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 9W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM 
DAYTONA BEACH TO PORT RICHEY AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 25N87W TO 
23N91W TO 20N93W AND TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
NEAR 18N93W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS THE NE GULF INDICATES 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE 
SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W AS THE CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED ALOFT 
BY AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 110W. STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
AND WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SE OF 
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED ON A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC. ALOFT... 
MOIST SW FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS MEXICO AND THE ENTIRE GULF 
PROVIDING AN AMPLE SOURCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PROVIDING A RELATIVELY SUBSIDENT 
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVELS. THIS UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 
10N74W AND EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO 22N AND EASTWARD INTO 
THE TROPICAL ATLC TO 55W. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER 
LEVELS...A SHALLOW STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE FAR NE PORTION OF 
THE BASIN BETWEEN ANGUILLA AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 
18N65W. TWO SHEAR LINES EXTEND FROM THAT POINT ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN...A NORTHERN LINE ALONG 17N70W 16N80W TO 13N82W AND A 
SOUTHERN LINE ALONG 15N70W TO 12N78W. BOTH OF THESE SHEAR LINES 
ARE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE BOUNDARIES. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE 
NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W FROM 15N-20N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR W ATLC NEAR 32N78W AND EXTENDS TO 
NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WATERS ARE 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 
1021 MB HIGHS WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 26N66W. THE SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA TO THE WEST AND TO NEAR 
30N50W TO THE EAST. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 
27N45W TO 23N54W THEN CONTINUES STATIONARY TO THE LESSER 
ANTILLES EAST OF THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD 
FRONT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS REMAINING N OF 26N AND EAST 
OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED 
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 
25N60W TO BEYOND 32N46W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE TROPICAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES 
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N26W BRINGING 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SE OF A LINE FROM 32N26W TO THE LESSER 
ANTILLES NEAR GUADELOUPE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN