000
AXNT20 KNHC 080000
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST THU JAN 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE NORTHERN 
COAST OF LIBERIA AT 6N11W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 4N30W  
2N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR ILHA DE MARAJO AT EQ50W. WEAK TO 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W TO 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF. 
THIS FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
OF 1017 MB NEAR 30N89W THROUGH 27N93W TO THE NORTHERN MEXICO 
COAST NEAR 24N97W...WHERE A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES 
SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICO COAST TO THE CITY OF NAUTIA NEAR 20N96W. 
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD LINE OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT. TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...WINDS FROM THE 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED. ACROSS THE EASTERN 
BASIN...A SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF THE EAST 
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM 
THE WEST...THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY 
SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BY NOON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR 
ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION FROM HAPPENING ACROSS THE 
REGION. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE...WEAK CONVECTION IS BEEN TRIGGERED OVER THE NORTH 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BASIN BY A SHALLOW STATIONARY FRONT 
ENTERING THE NORTHEAST BASIN ACROSS THE ISLAND OF ST. THOMAS 
NEAR 18N65W AND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N68W. THEN...IT 
CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N75W 13N80W TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF COSTA 
RICA NEAR 10N83W. INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVERGENCE 
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. DOPPLER 
RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE ACTIVITY BY SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE 
SHOWERS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. RADAR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS 
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN 
ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA 
ENTERS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THIS REGION NEAR 32N45W AND 
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 28N50W 25N55W 23N60W...BECOMING 
STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT INTO THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. 
INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE CONVECTION 
INDICATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND TO THE EAST 
OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION WITHIN AND AHEAD 
OF IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A 
SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N30W...BRINGING 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND 
EASTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA