000 AXNT20 KNHC 061756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N30W THEN TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MOSTLY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. W OF 90W...E TO SE WINDS AND THE BEGINNINGS OF WEAK SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF ARE OBSERVED FROM BUOYS AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS ACROSS THE NW GULF. AS THIS SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THURSDAY THAT WILL PROVIDE THE GULF BASIN WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN POLAR AIR. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION SW OF PANAMA NEAR 7N84W. E PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W AND CONTINUES ALONG 19N80W TO 16N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND PRIMARILY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FARTHER TO THE SE...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W ALONG 16N75W 13N80W TO 10N82W. CONVERGENT WINDS ALONG THE SHEAR LINE ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THIS FEATURE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A PATCH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AN AXIS OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 67W-72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W CONTINUING SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 27N61W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/1330 DEPICTED SW WINDS TO 20 KT E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N25W. FARTHER E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N34W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER S OF 30N E OF 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ HUFFMAN