000 AXNT20 KNHC 061156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 2N30W 2N40W 1N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 31W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING SWD FROM A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SE ARKANSAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS IN THE LOW 50S. FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE UP TO 15 KT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WITH AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE SE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO SEEP ACROSS THE WRN GULF SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EWD AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU WHICH WILL BRING A SECOND BLAST OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR PANAMA. HOWEVER...E PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC TO THE ERN EDGE OF CUBA CONTINUING N OF JAMAICA TO NEAR 17N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE S OF JAMAICA TO THE NE COAST OF COSTA RICA WITH NE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS NW OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE WITH ISOLATED FARTHER NW OF THE BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE BOUNDARIES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO COVER THE FAR SW N ATLC BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 997 MB LOW NE OF BERMUDA ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N59W CONTINUING SW TO TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 65W AND ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN 18 HRS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W CONTINUING SW TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA WHERE IS CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE IN THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 35W-61W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N34W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON