000 AXNT20 KNHC 060536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N21W 3N32W 2N41W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 2N-4N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NORTH TO SOUTH ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NRN MISSOURI. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH FREEZE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE UP TO 15 KT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WITH AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO SEEP ACROSS THE SW GULF SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST AND SHIFT EWD WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU WHICH WILL BRING A SECOND BLAST OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HOWEVER...E PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AROUND THE SRN EXTEND OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SW N ATLC SPREADING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE S OF JAMAICA TO THE NE COAST OF COSTA RICA WITH NE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS NW OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE WITH ISOLATES SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP TO 300 NM NW OF THE BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT EWD WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO COVER THE FAR SW N ATLC BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1005 MB LOW NE OF BERMUDA ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 180 NM E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N61W CONTINUING SW TO THE SRN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM A SECOND COLD FRONT NEAR 31N56W CONTINUING SW TO WRN HISPANIOLA WHERE IS CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 36W-65W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 59W-75W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE DIMINISHING. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N33W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON