000
AXNT20 KNHC 051057
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST TUE JAN 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N21W 3N41W THEN ALONG THE 
EQUATOR WEST OF 48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 
NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 8W-11W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL 
PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
THAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
OVER THE E US TO OVER THE NE GULF INTO THE W ATLC PRODUCING A 
STRONG JET ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 
TO 170 KT WITH THE STRONGEST JET STREAK BETWEEN 25N-30N W OF 88W 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SRN 
GULF MAINLY S OF 26N WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING 
THE N GULF EXCEPT OF WITHIN 30/60 NM OF THE N GULF COAST FROM 
CEDAR KEY FLORIDA CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS WHERE CLEAR SKIES 
PREVAIL. THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF COOL 
TEMPERATURES. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT... 
REMAINS ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENTERING THE AREA FROM 
THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W W OVER E TIP OF JAMAICA 
BEFORE TURNING S TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THE 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN 
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 90 TO 110 KT. STRONG NE 
SURFACE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED 
SHOWERS. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
AREA S OF 20N W OF 81W AND WITHIN 200 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GIVING 
THE S CARIBBEAN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR MAINLY S OF 
18N. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC 
AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING 
STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W 
CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N57W TO OVER HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
NEAR 19N71W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM BERMUDA TO JUST E OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N76W. 
DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT 
AND SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS 
ALSO PRODUCING A STRONG JET N OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 
19N71W TO BEYOND 32N53W WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 90 
AND 170 KT WITH THE STRONGEST JET STREAK FROM 25N-30N FROM THE 
GULF OF MEXICO OVER FLORIDA TO 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES 
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N34W 
GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE