000
AXNT20 KNHC 050003 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST MON JAN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF SIERRA 
LEONE NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W TO NORTHEAST 
BRAZIL NEAR THE CITY OF MACAPA AT EQ50. ISOLATED WEAK TO 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 32W 
AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 
KT OVER MOST OF THE BASIN...AND UP TO 30 KT OVER THE WESTERN 
BASIN...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
AXIS IS SETTLED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT 
WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. A STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC INTO 
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF...SOUTH OF 26N. CONDITIONS WILL 
REMAIN SIMILAR AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS ALONG THE TEXAS 
AND MEXICO GULF COASTS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 
36 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N75W...CROSSING THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA AND 
CONTINUING SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 10N83W. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND 
OVER THE CANAL DE LA MONA...WHERE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF 
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED MOVING NORTH ACROSS 
THIS CHANNEL. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHEAST WINDS 10 
TO 15 KT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT WITH WEAK CONVECTION 
ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST...WHILE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 
20 KT TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EAST OF 
70E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH CARIBBEAN BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WEATHER ON THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF A DEEP TROUGH...SUPPORTING A SET OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND 
SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER THE WEST-NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. A BROAD 
AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS 
FOUND BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST...ANALYZED ALONG 
30N68W 27S73W INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND AN ELONGATED COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
ATLANTIC. THE ELONGATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 
25N50W...WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING ALONG 
24N60W 20N70W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...THEN INTO THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N31W...BRINGING FAIR 
WEATHER TO THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA