000
AXNT20 KNHC 041115
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST MON JAN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 3N40W 2N50W. THE 
ITCZ IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT N TO NE WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES 
ARE BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE COASTS OF N FLORIDA AND S ALABAMA N 
OF 28N WITH ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
A BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 
23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
ARE OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE 
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 90-110 KT 25O MB WINDS PERSIST. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N. EXPECT 
SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SURFACE CONFLUENCE TO PRODUCE 
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO N OF JAMAICA TO E 
HONDURAS ALONG 20N74W 18N82W 15N84W. THE FRONT HAS RETROGRADED 
SLIGHTLY N OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 14N...OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N AND W OF 82W...AND OVER THE N 
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-82W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY 
FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ALL 
DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS N OF THE FRONTAL 
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N45W TO 26N50W. 
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 
22N60W 21N70W 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONTS. A LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
IS W OF THE FRONTS TO 80W. FURTHER E...A 1024 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N32W. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 32N11W OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW 
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N16W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SLIGHT 
RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 
45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 
10N BETWEEN 20W-45W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO NEAR 38W WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OUT 
OF THE AREA.     

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA