000 AXNT20 KNHC 032307 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N20W 4N40W 2N51W. THE ITCZ IS VOID OF ANY CONVECTION WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A PATCH OF ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 40S OVER THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL NLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP COLDER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF WITH RED FLAG FIRE WARNINGS REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND ALABAMA ALONG WITH FREEZE WARNINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...S GEORGIA... S ALABAMA...AND SE LOUISIANA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN TO THE NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A VAST AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. 12Z RAOBS INDICATED 200 MB WINDS OF 110-140 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING LATE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE NW GULF WATERS THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPES FROM THE FAR SW ATLC ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...FAR SE CUBA THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE NRN COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. LOW AND MID LEVEL OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE S OF 17N W OF 84 INCLUDING MUCH OF HONDURAS...AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA N OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL AXIS. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN HISPANIOLA...SE CUBA AND HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WHICH IS PROVIDING VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA S OF 20N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHIFTING TO NE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO REINFORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND MONDAY PUSHING THE FRONT SLIGHTLY SE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN OCCLUDED COMPLEX 978 MB LOW JUST OFF THE NE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W CONTINUING SW ALONG 23N60W TO 20N66W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO NRN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180-210 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60-75 EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE 978 MB STORM CENTER IS SUPPORTING A VAST AREA OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS TO 30 KT N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 75W. A DEEP LAYER POLAR VORTEX AND TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE NE UNITED STATES COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES IS PROVIDING AMPLE SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N33W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE AND A SECOND...BUT MUCH WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE E ATLC. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS PORTUGAL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 20N30W...WHERE IT BECOMES A DYING STATIONARY FRONT TO 18N47W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING THROUGH THE FRONT...ITS DISSIPATION IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW THROUGH 20N28W TO 15N35W PROVIDES THE ONLY SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ COBB