000
AXNT20 KNHC 031752
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SUN JAN 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1615 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N4W 4N18W 3N34W 2N44W EQ51W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 
4W-6W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 16W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO 
DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS LAST NIGHT IN 
THE 40S DIPPED AS FAR S AS HAVANA CUBA...WITH COLDER LOWS 
FARTHER N. N TO NE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF 
REACHING 15 KT. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
FLORIDA AND ALABAMA ALONG WITH FREEZE WARNINGS ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF FLORIDA...S GEORGIA... S ALABAMA...AND SE LOUISIANA. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN TO THE NE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO 
REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SLY 
RETURN FLOW INCREASING LATE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT 
FORECAST TO REACH THE NW GULF WATERS THU. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO NRN HISPANIOLA 
TO S OF ERN CUBA BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 
THE NRN COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S 
OF 17N W OF 84 INCLUDING MUCH OF HONDURAS...AS WELL AS OVER 
HISPANIOLA N OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA 
WHICH IS PROVIDING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE 
MAJORITY OF THE AREA BESIDES THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE E AND 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHIFTING TO NE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO REINFORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE 
TONIGHT AND MON PUSHING THE FRONT SLIGHTLY SE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN 
OCCLUDED 977 MB LOW S OF NEWFOUNDLAND ENTERING THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 32N51W CONTINUING SW ALONG 23N61W TO NRN HISPANIOLA 
NEAR 20N70W TO S OF ERN CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS 
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. THE TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS TO 30 KT N 
OF 29 N W OF THE FRONT TO 75W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CENTERED OFF 
THE NE UNITED STATES COAST SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A 
1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N35W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC AND A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE 
E ATLC. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS PORTUGAL TO THE 
CANARY ISLANDS CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 16N46W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY 
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO E OF THE 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON