000
AXNT20 KNHC 031129
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN JAN 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 4N40W 2N51W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 21W-25W... 
AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 31W-33W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES 
ARE BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE COASTS OF N FLORIDA AND S ALABAMA N 
OF 29N. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N MEXICO FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 95W-99W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF W OF 83W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS. 
90-110 KT 25O MB WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT SURFACE NORTHERLY 
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ALSO EXPECT SURFACE CONFLUENCE TO PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 23N WITHIN 24 
HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM E 
CUBA NEAR 20N74W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N W OF 80W. SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS ARE FURTHER E OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 
67W-73W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING ZONAL FLOW. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED 
SHOWERS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W TO E CUBA ALONG  
26N60W 20N74W MOVING E. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF 
FRONT W OF FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 60W-68W. FURTHER E...A 1020 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N37W MOVING E. 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N15W TO 
24N25W 19N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF 
THE FRONT N OF 28N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 
20N BETWEEN 35W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-35W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 43W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC 
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OUT OF THE AREA.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA