000
AXNT20 KNHC 030523
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN JAN 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 4N20W 5N40W 2N51W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 14W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES 
ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COASTS OF THE NORTH GULF 
STATES. FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR 
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...S GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND SE LOUISIANA. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF W OF 
85W. THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS. 90-110 KT 25O MB WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE N GULF N OF 
25N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT 
SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PERSIST OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SURFACE CONFLUENCE TO PRODUCE 
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM E 
CUBA NEAR 21N75W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 14N W OF 80W...AND OVER E CUBA BETWEEN 
74W-78W. SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FURTHER E OVER 
HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-73W. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING ZONAL 
FLOW. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO E CUBA ALONG  
26N60W 21N75W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF 
FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 65W-75W. FURTHER E...A 1019 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N42W MOVING E. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N16W TO 22N30W. A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 18N45W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE  COLD FRONT N OF 
28N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W 
OF 60W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
35W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-35W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR 
THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 45W 
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E 
OUT OF THE AREA.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA