000 AXNT20 KNHC 022323 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N7W 6N18W 5N29W 5N44W 2N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 13W-15W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 24W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COLD...DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE ERN GULF LAST NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REACHING 20 KT ACROSS THE ERN GULF. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NE GULF INCLUDING FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF STATES. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF ALONG WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS ACROSS S FLORIDA AND FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...S GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND SE LOUISIANA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN WITH SOME MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER THE WRN GULF SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE W ATLC OVER TURKS AND CAICOS TO ERN CUBA BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE NRN COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT...AND 30 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM NEAR SAINT LUCIA WWD TO 14N65W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA WHICH IS PROVIDING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BESIDES THE NW GULF ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRESH ELY TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH NE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM A 969 MB LOW OFF THE NE UNITED STATES COAST ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N59W CONTINUING SW ALONG 27N63W TO TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W TO ERN CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30 N E OF THE FRONT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE COAST TO THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 23N44W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC AND A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE E ATLC. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS W OF PORTUGAL ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N19W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 23N30W BECOMING STATIONARY TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N57W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON