000
AXNT20 KNHC 021745
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SAT JAN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 5N13W 6N32W 3N40W 1N52W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 4N FROM 19W-25W. 
DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION COVER THE AREA S OF 5N W OF 35W TO INLAND 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF LAST NIGHT IS IN THE 
W ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN LEAVING IN ITS WAKE COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING ALL BUT THE NE GULF WHERE SKIES 
ARE CLEAR. DRIER AIR COVERS THE GULF WITH DEW POINTS RANGING 
BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND MID 50S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT 
WAS SUPPORTING THE FRONT COVERS THE FAR E US AND THE FAR E GULF 
OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC PRODUCING A MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE N GULF N OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS 
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 90 TO 130 
KT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT 
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER SE TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM A W ATLC COLD 
FRONT THAT CROSSES CUBA THROUGH THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO TO THE 
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR ROATAN ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS NEAR MARTINIQUE ISLAND CONTINUING NW TO 17N70W WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED 
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY 
STABLE OVER THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN 
WHERE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W 
EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N69W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THEN CUBA NEAR 
21N77W CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 225 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
COVERS THE FAR E US AND OVER THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 58W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB 
HIGH NEAR 26N45W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N20W 
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 23N21W WHERE IT BECOMES 
STATIONARY ALONG 15N53W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR MARTINIQUE 
CONTINUING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER 
TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N BETWEEN 
18W-45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 120 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 20N WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FRONT.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE