000 AXNT20 KNHC 021123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1130 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM WESTERN AFRICA OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE ALONG 10N20W 5N30W 3N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR ILHA DE MARAJO AT EQ50W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHING 60 NM ALONG THE SIERRA LEONE COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND 120 NM NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN...AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KTS. SUBSIDENCE OF AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST BASIN IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ONLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS SEEN ALOFT. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN TRANSPORTED FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ON THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA...FROM EASTERN CUBA...CROSSING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...TO EAST OF BELIZE. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. ON THE EAST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 14N61W 16N66W 18N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL BASIN. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THESE SHOWERS 90 NM SOUTH OF PONCE PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS BRINGING SUBSIDENCE OF AIR ALOFT AND SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION. LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO BELIZE WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 38N64W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CONTINUING THROUGH EASTERN CUBA. THIS FRONT IS EXPANDING EASTWARD AT 20 KTS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS ARE NOTED WEST OF THE FRONT...BRINGING ALONG A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. FURTHER EAST...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N50W MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 44N20W. A LONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER...ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N22W...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N26W 23N30W...CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 20N36W 17N45W 14N54W TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 23N. LESS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE WEST ATLANTIC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BRINGING CONVECTION TO THIS REGION. ALSO...THE EAST ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA