000
AXNT20 KNHC 020533
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SAT JAN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM WESTERN AFRICA OFF THE COAST OF 
SIERRA LEONE ALONG 7N20W 5N30W 4N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR 
AMAPA AT 2N50W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS 60 NM NORTH AND 
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
FOUND WITHIN 80 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LAST 24 
HOURS...LEAVING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTHERLY 
WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS. NOW...THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N80W 21N84W 
20N86W CONTINUING ON A SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
BASIN. SUBSIDENCE OF AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS TAKEN 
OVER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. THUS...NO ACTIVITY IS 
DETECTED ON RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT 
ALOFT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA...FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WEAK TO MODERATE 
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL LESSER 
ANTILLES AND EXTENDS NORTH WEST TO SOUTH HAITI ALONG 14N61W 
15N67W 18N73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. EAST WINDS 10 
TO 15 KT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST 
CORNER BASIN WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS 10 
TO 15 KTS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE OF 
AIR ALOFT...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. LOOK 
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM EAST CUBA TO BELIZE WITH RAIN 
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER SOUTH OF 
HISPANIOLA.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 36N67W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 32N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CONTINUING THROUGH 
WESTERN CUBA. THIS FRONT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT BRINGING ALONG 
A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 71W. FURTHER EAST...A 1020 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N53W MOVING 
EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN 
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N22W. A LONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM 
THE LOW CENTER...ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W...AND 
CONTINUING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 24N30W 
20N40W...STARTING TO DISSIPATE AT 14N50W TO THE EAST OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM 
EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 22N. LESS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING 
ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...FOR THE WEST ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BRINGING CONVECTION TO THIS REGION. ALSO LOOK 
FOR THE EAST ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE FURTHER EAST REACHING 
THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA