000 AXNT20 KNHC 011118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1150 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA...OVER THE CENTRAL COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...THROUGH 7N20W 5N30W 2N40W...TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR THE CITY OF MACAPA AT EQ50W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN ALONG 30N80W 28N84W 26N91W 23N94W. THIS FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 22N...OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON A EAST-NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING BEHIND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WIDE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTINENTAL US IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF 25N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THIS MOISTURE IS BEEN LIFTED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BASIN...FURTHER SUPPORTING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST MOVING BROAD LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE NORTHEAST BASIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE ENTERING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ENTERING THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...FROM TAMPA TO FORT MYERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP DOWN OVER THE GULF WITH FURTHER CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR ALOFT AND SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PASSING 70 NM SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THUS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING IN WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION 30 NM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THESE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N71W. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST BASIN WILL LESSEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DEEP CONVECTION FROM HAPPENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN NEAR THE 20N LINE...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST BASIN BRINGING CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PUSHING ALONG A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE WESTERN BASIN WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB OVER 32N59W. THUS...TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 200 NM NE OF THE BAHAMAS. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N30W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 21N40W 16N50W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND HISPANIOLA. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 60W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF 22N. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ATLANTIC IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...BRINGING CONVECTION TO THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA