000 AXNT20 KNHC 010538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA...OVER THE CENTRAL COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W...THROUGH 6.5N17W 7N23W 5N30W 3N40W...TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR THE CITY OF AMAPA AT 2S52W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. TO THE WEST OF 27W...THE ITCZ HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CALM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN ALONG 28N86W 25N89W 24N95W. THIS FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 23N...OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON A EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING BEHIND DEVELOPING GALE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WIDE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTINENTAL US IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FURTHER SUPPORTING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG 29N92W 26N93W 24N95W MOVING ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST AT ABOUT 25 KTS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CROSS NEW ORLEANS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO..CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES WILL SWEEP DOWN OVER THE GULF WITH FURTHER SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR ALOFT AND SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PASSING 70 NM SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THUS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING IN WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION 30 NM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THESE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N70W. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST BASIN WILL LESSEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DEEP CONVECTION FROM HAPPENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN NEAR THE 20N LINE...BRINGING POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...MOVING ALONG A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB INTO THE WESTERN BASIN. THUS LIGHT SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS 200 NM NE OF THE BAHAMAS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE WEST ATLANTIC. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 23N40W 17N50W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND HISPANIOLA. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 60W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ATLANTIC IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...BRINGING CONVECTION TO THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA