000 AXNT20 KNHC 271134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 49W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUD0S AND 20 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N85W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO N FLORIDA N OF 28N DUE TO RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER A 300 NM WIDE SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N91W TO BEYOND JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS NOTED OVER THE N GULF N OF THE ABOVE SWATH. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE E GULF ALONG 84W WITH SHOWERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N85W 15N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 83W-86W. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 22N78W 20N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 71W-77W...AND N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 18N BETWEEN 60W-70W. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N NICARAGUA NEAR 13N87W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N25W 21N40W 19N50W 19N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS N OF 30N BETWEEN 35W-42W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 27N E OF LINE FROM 31N46W TO 27N42W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N13W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTEND SW FROM THE CENTER TO NEAR 18N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N23W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THIS CENTER TO BEYOND THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ FORMOSA