000
AXNT20 KNHC 270538
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM E TEXAS TO 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 29N94W 24N96W 20N96W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND 20 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER S 
GEORGIA NEAR 32N85W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE 
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. 
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM 
E TEXAS TO N FLORIDA N OF 28N DUE TO RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER A 300 NM WIDE SWATH 
FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO ORLANDO FLORIDA. A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM 
IS NOTED OVER THE N GULF N OF THE ABOVE SWATH. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS...FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE E GULF ALONG 86W 
WITH SHOWERS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 
CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE ALONG 22N78W 20N85W 17N88W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N BETWEEN 82W-87W. 10 
KT N WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED 
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA E OF THE 
FRONT EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE STRONG 
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 
71W-76W...AND N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 19N BETWEEN 60W-65W. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N 
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N87W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 70W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE  OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W TO CENTRAL 
CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 70W-80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N28W 22N40W 19N60W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 
18N-20N BETWEEN 53W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND 
OVER MOROCCO NEAR 33N7W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTEND SW FROM THE 
CENTER TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 24N20W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-70W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 
17N23W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THIS CENTER TO 
BEYOND THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND FOR THE COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA