000
AXNT20 KNHC 260005
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 8N13W AT THE SIERRA LEONE COAST TO 4N30W TO 4N39W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 51W ALONG THE EQUATOR. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 45W AND COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO...WHOSE CYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERED PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...TEXAS...ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST OF THE U.S.A. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH
WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...MOVES FROM THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO...TOWARD FLORIDA AND BEYOND...ALONG
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH LEAVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT MUST BE COMPARATIVELY MORE SHALLOW THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS 
AGO. THE FRONT HAS LOST MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT
IT USED TO HAVE. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EXTREME NORTHEASTERN 
FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE WEST OF LAKE 
OKEECHOBEE...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
KEY WEST FLORIDA...TO CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO 19N85W IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES NEAR 19N63W ACCORDING TO THE 
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA ISLANDS TO 17N65W...TO A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS ALONG 17N67W 
AND 16N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ALREADY-DISSIPATED 
PRECIPITATION...COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 
64W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. THE MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW PASSES OVER
HISPANIOLA 14N77W AND STILL NEAR THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N47W TO
27N48W TO 24N60W SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG
32N45W TO 25N50W TO 22N57W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 22N57W
TO 21N65W AND 21N71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN AT LEAST 240 NM TO THE EAST 
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE 
AREA TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA 
AND 40W...AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
21N34W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 
THE 32N45W 21N71W FRONT...AROUND A 67W/68W RIDGE...TO THE NORTH
OF 23N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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MT