000 AXNT20 KNHC 241751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N26W 2N38W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 14N AND 27N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM 29N90W TO 24N93W MOVING AT 25 KT TO 30KT. COASTAL STATIONS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING 25 KT TO GALE FORCE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS 15 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS ENTERING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG THE 30N LINE BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 20 TO 30 KT SE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BEEN SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIFTING THE MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF. LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BRINGING THE CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN BASIN AND LEAVING GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND ITS PATH. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER THROUGH HAITI TO NEAR 16N74W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NE OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COMING FROM VENEZUELA IS BEEN MOVED TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LIFTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL BASIN. THEREFORE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 72W...DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRODUCING LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN THIS REGION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 MB LOW IS ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT 22N71W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER LOW EASTWARD ALONG 23N67W 22N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE AFFECTING THE WEST BASIN FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 50W-65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N12W TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N21W 25N32W. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS 50 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER 15N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENTERING THE WESTERN BASING AS IT PUSHES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM 70W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 15W. LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO START DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS THE AFRICAN WEST COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA