000 AXNT20 KNHC 241126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU DEC 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N20W 2N45W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 10N-20N...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 30W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 30N96W 25N98W. COASTAL STATIONS ARE REPORTING NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. RETURN FLOW WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT SE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF AND FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...70-90 KT ZONAL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF...AND PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 70W-73W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 64W-72W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE 1009 MB LOW OVER THE S BAHAMAS AT 21N72W TO 24N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N10W TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 21N30W 19N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 10W-18W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N12W 27N25W 26N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 17N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM 70W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 15W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N54W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE OLD COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND FOR THE NEW COLD FRONT TO MOVE E. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 50W-65W DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ FORMOSA