000
AXNT20 KNHC 231119
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 4N30W 4N45W 3N51W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N 
BETWEEN 18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N 
BETWEEN 25W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
2N-4N BETWEEN 29W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
2N-6N BETWEEN 42W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE-S SURFACE WINDS OVER THE N 
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE N OF 23N W OF 87W. SIMILAR 
CLOUDS ARE OVER CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 
81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A VERY SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS 
ALONG 83W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE AS NOTED ABOVE 
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS 
COAST WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION EXTENDING OVER THE NW GULF. 
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME ZONAL.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 
HISPANIOLA AT 18N75W. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM HISPANIOLA AT 20N70W TO THE LOW CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 70W-75W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 
9N-11N BETWEEN 75W-77W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS ARE NEAR THE LOW 
CENTER WHILE MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING WSW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 
67W-76W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO 
MOVE NE TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING S TO N COLOMBIA. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION NEAR THIS LOW 
AND TROUGH.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N12W TO 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 21N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES 
TO HISPANIOLA AT 20N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 
10W-22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FRONTS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
17N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E 
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N57W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW IS BETWEEN 35W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC E OF 35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD 
FRONT TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION N OF 
HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 57W-78W DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA