000 AXNT20 KNHC 142359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N30W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...PRIMARILY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA TO HOUSTON TEXAS AND S-SW TO BROWNSVILLE. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY INLAND ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS REACHING INTO THE GULF REMAINING N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W-95W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ON S-SE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF AND E/CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST THROUGH TOMORROW...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY TUESDAY WITH N-NE WINDS TO 30 KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG EASTERLY TRADES HIGHLIGHT THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N76W. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE USHERING IN ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED AREAS NE OF A LINE FROM MARTINIQUE TO S/CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND ALSO FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE ATLC HIGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 55W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N65W NEAR BERMUDA TO 31N70W...THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-70W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 70W. ALOFT THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N76W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A GRADUALLY WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N56W. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N30W TO 22N40W WHERE IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 19N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A LINGERING SHEARLINE TRAILING TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN E ATLC. ELSEWHERE SE OF THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ HUFFMAN