000 AXNT20 KNHC 131743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N12W 3N29W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 1.5N-5N BETWEEN 2W-10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS IS KEEPING LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...AND THEREFORE FOG HAS DEVELOP IN THIS REGION EXTENDING TO AROUND 140 NM TO THE SEA BASIN. FURTHERMORE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF FOG OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W. THIS AREA OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A 1019 LOW IS LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 28N90W...BECOMING COLD FRONT FROM THIS POINT SOUTH EASTWARD TO 26N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND CONTINUING OUT TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND 70 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 25N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW MOVING INLAND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE N GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FROM THE SE AT 10-15 KT. THE SOUTHEASTERN BASIN IS BEING INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING WEATHER ACTIVITY OVER THE SE GULF BASIN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 90W. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-78W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT AREAS FROM 16N AND 20N BETWEEN 60W TO 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GREATER ANTILLES...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N35W TO 26N64W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE NW FROM 26N64W TO 29N78W. THIS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS LINKED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 90 S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF THE 29N LATITUDE. $$ GARCIA