000 AXNT20 KNHC 130522 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 3N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 12W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 35W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1016 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 26N94W 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO THE E GULF ALONG 30N87W 29N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM E LOUISIANA TO S ALABAMA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 86W-90W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 30N E OF 93W. WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY FRONTS ARE FROM THE SE AT 15-20 KT. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 50'S OVER THE N GULF TO THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF STATES N OF 30N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W IN 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW TO S TEXAS WITH SHOWERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES. 10-15 SE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF THE COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-78W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN NAMELY THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N BETWEEN 75W-85W...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N42W TO 24N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE N BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 25N74W 28N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N32W. A 1007 MB LOW IS NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 34N11W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 5W-12W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 40W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N10W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N30W TO 24N42W WITH SHOWERS. $$ FORMOSA