000 AXNT20 KNHC 121122 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N30W 2N45W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W... AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 24W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 23N96W 22N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO THE E GULF ALONG 28N93W 25N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 29N AS NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. WINDS N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY FRONTS ARE FROM THE ENE AT 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40'S OVER THE N GULF TO THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N91W IN 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WITH SHOWERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES. 10-15 SE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF THE COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR 1200 UTC ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-78W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY N OF 14N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT...SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W TO 26N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONTS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N45W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N11W TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N15W 23N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 40W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N14W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N38W TO 25N60W TO THE N BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION HEAVIEST N OF 24N W OF 70W. $$ FORMOSA