000 AXNT20 KNHC 031142 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU DEC 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N26W 6N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO VENICE AND INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 25N84W 21N90W TO 20N95W IN THE SW GULF. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N88W SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W TO 15N. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER WITHIN 60 NM BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 23N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 23N ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR 31N83W SW TO 26N92W. STRONGER NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS ARE NOTED IN SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THIS SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD AND EXITS THE GULF REGION...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SW CONUS AND NW MEXICO WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF LATE FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN ON FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND LESSER ANTILLES MAINLY E OF 72W. ALSO...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA SW OF A LINE FROM 11N84W TO 9N80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME W ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N78W TRAILING SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N AND WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO BEYOND 32N64W IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA CENTERED NEAR 35N56W. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 52W-65W AND FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 69W-73W. FARTHER EAST...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S ALONG 43W TO 16N AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N47W TO BEYOND 32N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N23W. $$ HUFFMAN