000 AXNT20 KNHC 021147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED DEC 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N30W 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 17W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO A 998 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N92W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-94W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 25N. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH TEXAS NEAR 32N98W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH HISPANIOLA TO 30N70W IN THE W ATLC. SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...SE GULF...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO GALE FORCE OCCURRING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 86W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER THE SE CONUS AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSLATES E-NE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING STRONG W-NW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... CENTRAL AMERICA AND MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION BRINGING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN ON FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES. ALSO...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA SW OF A LINE FROM 12N84W TO 9N80W. THE STRONGEST TRADEWINDS ARE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W-77W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 52W IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC N OF 30N AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 29N65W THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 65W-73W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W N OF 20N. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 23N53W TO BEYOND 32N46W. MOST OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 42W-48W AND IS LARGELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 47W. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N28W. $$ HUFFMAN