000 AXNT20 KNHC 020551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED DEC 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N27W 4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W THEN WESTWARD TO A 1001 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N91W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N W OF 83W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS NEAR 33N101W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS TO EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC. SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...SE GULF...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA... GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO GALE FORCE. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE SE CONUS AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSLATES E-NE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING STRONG W-NW WINDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... CENTRAL AMERICA AND MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 65W ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION BRINGING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN ON FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE TRADES ARE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W-77W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 57W IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC N OF 32N AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N62W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS W-SW TO 28N74W THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 63W-73W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W N OF 16N. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N50W TO 22N51W. MOST OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 42W-48W AND IS LARGELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 49W. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N32W. $$ HUFFMAN