000 AXNT20 KNHC 012348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE DEC 01 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N30W 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 13W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 24W-27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N97W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 29N90W 28N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE LOW FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 85W-91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WARM FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITH 11 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE...THE E PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE SE GULF HAS 10-15 KT S WINDS WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 30N103W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF AND PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE W EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W ALSO PRODUCING SW FLOW. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT 20 KT NW WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION W OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE NW GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N AND W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 78W PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W TO 29N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N50W 22N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 45W-50W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS W OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N79W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE SW WINDS TO START IN 30 HOURS E OF THIS FRONT...N OF 29N W OF 74W. $$ FORMOSA