000
AXNT20 KNHC 011140
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N30W 4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 8W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG 
BEND INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W W-SW ALONG 27N90W TO A 1009 MB LOW 
NEAR 26N96W THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG 20N95W AND INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS VERY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY MAINLY COVERING THE GULF W OF 93W AND N OF 24N BETWEEN 
85W-93W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
AREA OVER THE NW GULF BETWEEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED 
OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 31N107W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA 
ALONG 82W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC. TO THE SE OF THE 
FRONT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 83W-90W. OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG 
THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NW GULF WATERS AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES SWEEPING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND 
TEXAS. THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY 
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 27N E OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W ARE UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM COSTA 
RICA ALONG 82W TO WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION BRINGING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES TO MUCH 
OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN 
ON FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST OF THESE TRADES ARE LOCATED OFF THE COAST 
OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 72W IN THE W ATLC N OF 32N 
AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
32N78W AND EXTENDS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE REMAINING MAINLY N OF 32N 
AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE W 
ATLC WATERS ARE CONTROLLED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 
30N60W TO THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA NEAR 22N77W. FARTHER EAST 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 
53N N OF 20N. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT 
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N49W ALONG 30N51W TO 23N52W. 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 46W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N26W.

$$
HUFFMAN