000 AXNT20 KNHC 301126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N22W 5N35W 4N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 11W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 29W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS EXTENDING FROM GALVESTON NEAR 29N94W TO S OF CORPUS CRISTI NEAR 27N97W TO INLAND MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 50 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 30 KT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST UNITED STATES TO NRN TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE WRN ATLC NEAR 32N57W. BESIDES NEAR THE FRONT...MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CONUS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE SE AND STALL TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA NEAR 19N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 65W TO S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND A PAIR OF UPPER RIDGES OVER THE W AND E CARIBBEAN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT NEAR E CUBA TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 32N57W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 65W IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS N OF 22N BETWEEN 58W-66W. FARTHER E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W CONTINUING ALONG 25N56W 21N64W TO E CUBA NEAR 19N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE FRONT FROM 21N52W TO 27N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH N OF 22N BETWEEN 42W-48W. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 49W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 35N27W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 36W ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE E PORTION OF THE ITCZ. $$ WALTON