000
AXNT20 KNHC 300520
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N25W 4N40W 4N52W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 18W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM A 1022 MB 
HIGH IN THE WRN ATLC NEAR 31N62W. E TO SE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 10 KT 
ARE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL GULF...WHILE SE TO S WINDS UP TO 15 KT 
COVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE BASIN. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CONUS AND 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS N OF 27N. EXPECT A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER 
SE TEXAS TO REACH THE NW GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS. STRONG 
NLY WINDS WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S OF E CUBA FROM 20N74W TO 
19N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT 
AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 70W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 
16N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY 
FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND A PAIR 
OF UPPER RIDGES OVER THE W AND E CARIBBEAN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB 
HIGH NEAR 31N63W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 70W 
IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS N OF 23N BETWEEN 61W-69W. 
FARTHER E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC 
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N47W CONTINUING ALONG 25N56W 
21N65W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED E OF THE FRONT FROM 21N51W TO 27N50W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH N OF 23N BETWEEN 
42W-48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE 
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT AND FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 63W-68W. THIS 
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS 
ALONG 50W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A 1027 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 35N28W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE E 
PORTION OF THE ITCZ. 

$$
WALTON