000
AXNT20 KNHC 292327
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N30W 3N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-30W...AND FROM 
10N-15N BETWEEN 13W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N 
BETWEEN 31W-36W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. A GOOD AMOUNT OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27W AND W OF 85W. A COLD FRONT IS 
INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO INCLUDE S FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
SOUTH LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA 
TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N74W 19N83W 16N86W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER 
W...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...BELIZE... AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 86W-90W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...PUERTO RICO...AND 
HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING 
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO 
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE 
SHOWERS OVER PANAMA.    

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N48W TO 23N60W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 45W-48W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE 
THE S BAHAMAS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N28W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF 50W BETWEEN 15N-30N 
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO 
TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND 
CONVECTION.  

$$
FORMOSA