000 AXNT20 KNHC 291135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 6N27W 5N41W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 11W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 25W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE...DRIFTING E...CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER SRN GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH SE-S RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER THE NW GULF TO NEAR 20 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE ERN GULF ALONG 85W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR E PORTION OF THE BASIN INCLUDING MUCH OF FLORIDA. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF HONDURAS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 83W-87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA INDICATED BY RADAR IMAGERY IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MUCH OF THE W ATLC IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN GEORGIA...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W CONTINUING ALONG 26N58W TO 21N68W BECOMING STATIONARY TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N BETWEEN 47W-54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 57W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 19N45W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N50W TO 25N49W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-27N BETWEEN 43W-47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 36N29W. THE TAIL END OF A DYING COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FAR E ATLC E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32N10W TO 28N14W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ. $$ WALTON